Market Context
EURUSD has been in a corrective phase since printing a weekly high at 1.1145. The current price action suggests a classic ICT liquidity hunt is developing below the key support cluster at 1.0780 — a level that has been holding for three consecutive weeks and is therefore crowded with retail stop orders.
The Liquidity Pool at 1.0780
When a level holds for multiple sessions, it accumulates buy-stop orders from traders who are long and sell-stop orders from breakout traders anticipating a break lower. This concentration of orders makes 1.0780 a prime liquidity target for institutional players who need this liquidity to offload large positions at optimal prices.
ICT Framework Analysis
On the daily chart, we can identify:
- A bearish order block between 1.0840 and 1.0870 acting as resistance
- A fair value gap on the 4H chart between 1.0795 and 1.0810
- A weekly liquidity pool (equal lows) at 1.0778
The narrative: price is likely to sweep below 1.0780, trigger stop orders, and then aggressively reverse toward the premium array at 1.0940–1.0960.
Trade Setup
We are not selling into this drop. Instead, we are waiting for the sweep of 1.0780 followed by a bullish market structure shift on the 15-minute chart. Once we see a break of structure above a 15M swing high after the sweep, we enter long with a stop below the sweep low and a target at 1.0940.
Key Levels to Watch
- Support sweep target: 1.0778–1.0760
- Entry zone (post-sweep): 1.0790–1.0810
- Target 1: 1.0880
- Target 2: 1.0950
- Invalidation: Daily close below 1.0740
This is a patience trade. Do not chase price down — wait for the sweep confirmation and structure shift before entering.